Calm Headlines, High-Risk Reality
FRANKFURT / HAMBURG, Nov. 13, 2025 – Hapag-Lloyd will keep bypassing the Suez Canal and routing its main East–West services around the Cape of Good Hope, even as attacks in the Red Sea ease and some carriers test a return to the waterway.
Chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen told analysts that, despite “a somewhat calmer” situation, a comeback to the Suez route is “not very soon,” stressing that the group will only return when it considers the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab genuinely safe for ships and crews.
The decision comes as the German carrier reports a 50% drop in nine-month net profit and rising transport costs, while its new Gemini Cooperation with Maersk is only beginning to deliver savings.
Why Hapag-Lloyd Still Treats the Red Sea as a War Zone
Although ceasefire moves around Gaza have lowered political temperature, the underlying security profile of the Red Sea remains unstable.A detailed risk assessment by the Atlas Institute for International Affairs notes that since November 2023 Houthi militants have carried out more than 190 attacks on merchant shipping, cutting Suez Canal trade volumes by nearly 57.5% between late 2023 and early 2024 and forcing most large carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding about 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages.
The same analysis, drawing on European Parliament research, the IMF PortWatch platform and House of Commons briefings, underlines that the Red Sea remains a live conflict zone where naval coalitions and airstrikes have not fully neutralised Houthi strike capability or intent.
Verisk Maplecroft’s latest political-risk note goes further: after renewed ship sinkings in July 2025, it concludes that “insurers and shipping companies” should not expect an end to Houthi disruption before the end of 2025, and that war-risk premiums remain elevated enough to keep many lines on the Cape detour.
Gemini Network: Stability Now Beats a Faster Suez
The unique factor shaping Hapag-Lloyd’s stance is its Gemini Cooperation with Maersk, launched on 1 February 2025. The joint network is built explicitly around reliability and a Cape-of-Good-Hope detour, while the Red Sea stays volatile. Hapag-Lloyd’s own Gemini page says the partners “plan to continue to sail around the Cape of Good Hope” and will “return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so,” framing the Cape routing as part of a deliberate long-term design rather than a temporary patch.
The Gemini network already reaches schedule reliability above 90% in its early rollout, far above historic liner-industry norms, according to Hapag-Lloyd’s own data. House of Shipping’s independent analysis notes that Gemini uses a “Cape of Good Hope strategy” but offsets some extra distance through fewer port calls, hub-and-spoke shuttles and tighter scheduling, keeping transit times competitive.
For a carrier trying to rebuild margins, tearing up that network to chase a slightly shorter route through an unstable chokepoint cuts directly against its cost and quality strategy. Reuters reports that Hapag-Lloyd’s transported volumes rose 9% to 10.2 million TEU in January–September 2025, but transport costs jumped 10.8% to €10.5 billion, helping push nine-month net profit down 50%.
Suez Canal Is Recovering, But Not Uniformly
The Suez Canal Authority is signalling a gradual rebound in traffic as more carriers test the route following the ceasefire. Reuters figures show toll revenues rose 14.2% year-on-year in the July–October 2025 period, with average daily transits climbing back to around 72 ships from about 50 at the start of the year. An earlier industry report cited by OFI Magazine notes that, at the worst point of the crisis, Suez traffic had fallen by as much as 60%, with 2024 toll revenues collapsing by more than 60% or roughly US$6–7 billion after a record US$10.25 billion in 2023.
The same report quotes Suez Canal Authority officials pointing to major carriers like CMA CGM and MSC sending selected services back through the canal, while Maersk is described as “evaluating” a broader return. Hapag-Lloyd’s stance therefore stands out: where some operators are pivoting back to Suez to regain speed and lower fuel burn, Gemini is holding the Cape line to protect schedule reliability and de-risk long-term service patterns.
The company is calibrating its Red Sea decision to a security threshold, not to the diplomatic calendar. Ceasefires, statements by militants, or individual months of calm are treated as noise until credible evidence shows that Houthi strike capacity, not just intent, has been durably degraded. Its Cape-optimised Gemini network turns that cautious risk stance into a commercial strategy: “Number One for Quality” in Hapag-Lloyd’s own branding now means more predictable arrivals via a longer but safer corridor, instead of chasing the fastest great-circle route through an unstable chokepoint.
As Editor in Chief of The Maritime, I lead content development, interviews, and digital storytelling across our multimedia maritime platform. With over 10 years of experience in the maritime industry, I create and publish in-depth stories and video features that highlight key players, emerging trends, and operational realities across global shipping. Before launching The Maritime, I worked as a Vessel Operator at Imza Marine A.S., gaining hands-on commercial shipping and voyage operations experience. I also served as Marketing Communications Specialist at Gimas Ship Supply & Services, where I managed corporate communication, digital strategy, and industry outreach for shipowners and maritime clients. I hold a Master’s degree in Maritime Transportation Management from Istanbul Technical University and a Master’s degree in Publishing from Marmara University. My work is driven by the belief that the maritime world deserves strong, informed, and accessible media representation. I am committed to sharing the stories of maritime professionals and contributing to the sector’s visibility, knowledge exchange, and future development.
